Meeting at Blenheim on Thursday is NATO

Tue 16 Jul, 08:31

The EPC meeting absolutely isn't NATO.

It's a meeting of countries that see themselves as European, but aren't tightly allied to Russia (like Belarus). That means NATO's largest member (the US) and its next door neighbour, Canada, aren't members. And other EPC members include countries like Ireland that simply don't want to be NATO members, as well as countries like Armenia and Georgia that would be petrified of joining NATO because that'd upset Russia and they don't want to upset Russia.

Ukraine is a member of the EPC, and its view about NATO membership is complicated. It'd love more support from full NATO members - but before Russia invaded, Ukraine was leery about trying to join, because that would commit all current members to going to war to defend Ukraine, and Ukraine understood that most of NATO might be iffy about the consequent risk of nuclear war on European soil. Remember: NATO membership involves a pledge to go to war with any non-NATO country attacking a NATO member. 

Now Russia's hell-bent on destroying Ukraine, Zelensky's even keener on full support from his neighbours than he was.  Whenever he appears outside Ukraine, he tries to get even more support, so it wouldn't be surprising if he turned up at Blenheim this week, and used his presence for lots of lobbying. It wouldn't be very surprising either if the communique after this week's meeting included something about solidarity with members under foreign attack. But it'd be gobsmacking if the EPC even dreamt collectively of expressing any kind of collective support for Ukraine's NATO membership.

But what's much likelier, in my view, is that all 47 member countries will be using a meeting that won't be on the public record, to judge for themselves the significance for the Ukraine debate of the previous fortnight's changes in the anti-Russian nuclear powers. We might know the name of the next French Prime Minister by Thursday: it'll be Starmer's first outing with the whole European gang - and who knows what new twist will complicate attitudes to the US? Statespeople don't get as many chances as they'd like to talk to their peers off the record - and the real results of their time here will probably never appear in the press. 

None of that makes the EPC NATO, nor even a tool of NATO. The whole point of the EPC is to provide a forum for all of non-Russian Europe, whether or not members of the EU, the EEA or NATO, where they can meet and discuss issues of common concern.

Of which there's currently no shortage.