Brexit (Debate)

Wed 9 Dec 2020, 13:53

We are re-debating last year's questions. We need to move on.

1. We have left the EU, and despite what some might hope, there is absolutely no prospect for the UK to rejoin in the foreseeable future. There is no substantial majority in the UK for it, and the EU has absolutely no desire to take us back. 

2. Whatever is agreed in the next few days we have a "hard" Brexit. No customs union, no single market, no freedom of movement, no CAP. That will also be the state for the foreseeable future. I also don't think we will be wanted in the EFTA block of nations, even if a future government were minded to apply.

3. In terms of relationships the UK will take decisions in its own economic self-interest, but so will the EU. We do not have to accept their standards, but in turn they are under no obligation to accept our exports. That will also be the same calculation that every other country will make.  

4. We can speculate what the economic costs might (or might not) be. We will find out over the coming years, though they will probably be hard to disentangle from other factors.

But there are some important choices ahead of us. The UK union appears to be increasingly unstable. The opinion in Scotland is moving steadily and strongly in favour of independence, I suspect that is probably now unstoppable. 

Ireland feels to be moving in a similar direction, probably as a federal state.

So in a about decade (perhaps less) R-UK might comprise England and Wales. With Scotland re-negotiating its entry into the EU (I'd expect a reunited NI would be automatic like east Germany). The challenge will be to ensure those changes are done in a peaceful way - which is a considerable challenge.

The other challenge is to try to find a way of attracting some investment to the UK and at the same time addressing the long-standing weaknesses in the economy - which successive governments have failed to do. Low productivity, low educational standards for the bottom 25% of the population, health inequalities, a climate crisis, lack of housing, decaying infrastructure, a substantial and growing budget deficit and so on. 

It will take a focussed and competent government to address these challenges, so far we've seen little beyond soundbites.