Parliamentary Constituency Boundary Review

Wed 9 Nov 2022, 14:24

Liz, The prediction of a Labour win in Witney is for the constituency on the new boundaries (so excluding Charlbury, Finstock and Chipping Norton). The margin reported is Lab. 36.9%, Con 34.7%, Lib Dem 19.5%. 

Banbury is predicted to be a much clearer Labour win with the new boundaries: Labour 46.4%, Conservatives 29.7 %, Lib Dems 13.5%. 

Even Bicester and Woodstock is predicted as a Labour win: Labour 39.1%, Cons 30.9%, Lib Dem 20.1%. 

But I'm not sure how much these calculations are worth! As discussed elsewhere in the Forum (now in the Debate section, I think), the calculations seem to be done on national averages, rather than with detailed knowledge of postcodes, populations and areas, let alone including and excluding particular wards. 

Wed 9 Nov 2022, 13:14

Labour voters might want to propose remaining in Witney, as the electoral calculus projects a clear win for Labour, with Tories 2nd and LibDems a distant 3rd.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=ox283ga

Tue 8 Nov 2022, 19:37 (last edited on Tue 8 Nov 2022, 20:12)

Yes, Michael, that seems to me to be right -- except that November 1st 2023 is the latest date for confirming the revisions. But it's clear that nothing can happen before 1st July 2023. It looks as if the Order might be rushed through sometime between July and November if deemed urgent.

But what is very unclear to me is the point at which candidates for each constituency would be selected -- presumably between July 1st and November 1st. It's likely that Victoria Prentis will remain the Conservative candidate for the Banbury seat, so if we move into Banbury there wouldn't be that much disruption.

But it's different elsewhere.

Thus, for example, the situation is much less clear with regard to Witney. Robert Courts now lives in the proposed Bicester and Woodstock constituency. Does he decide to stick with Witney? Or shift over to the new constituency which, on the face of things, looks a more marginal seat -- or even a likely LibDem seat? And how is this decided? Similar problems all over the country, so a good degree of chaos ...

Tue 8 Nov 2022, 19:00 (last edited on Tue 8 Nov 2022, 19:01)

Can I check on everyone's understanding of the timings here?

After discussion of today's report , the Electoral Commission has to submit its final, final recommendations to the Speaker by July 1, 2023. The Government must then submit an Order confirming those revisions to the Privy Council by November 1, 2023 - and, once that Order is confirmed, the revised boundaries must be used in any subsequent General Election. 

The Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 now says that a General Election must be held by January 2025 - but that the PM of the day may call an election earlier if he wants to (which traditionally means if he thinks he'll have a better chance of winning an earlier election).

So if the next election is called for before November 1, 2023 Charlbury will still be in the Witney constituency: if it's called for after November 1, we'll probably be in Banbury.

Anyone think Sunak will feel lucky and call an early election - or the Tories will disintegrate so much more that they'll lose a Parliamentary Vote of Confidence? Personally, I'd bet our next Parliamentary election will be for Banbury

Incidentally: if Mr Courts gets fed up of being attacked in Charlbury and resigns before a GE, any by-election as a result will use the current boundaries.

Tue 8 Nov 2022, 08:36

As anticipated, Charlbury and Finstock are still down to be moved into the Banbury constituency.

The boundary is between Fawler and Stonesfield, with the latter moving into the Bicester and Woodstock constituency. Ramsden and Leafield remain with Witney, as do Ascott under Wychwood and Burford.

Comments and objections still possible, but I think the likelihood for change is slim.

Sun 6 Nov 2022, 23:34 (last edited on Sun 6 Nov 2022, 23:35)

If it means that we get an MP at last, instead of a spineless Tory yes-man, then I am all for moving to the Banbury constituency. Even if the MP we get is still Tory, it would seem that with a significant Labour support in that constituency, the MP would actually need to do some work representing his or her constituents, which - it seems - cannot be said of our current incumbent here.

Sun 6 Nov 2022, 15:43

A new map of proposed constituencies in England will be published on 8 November by the Boundary Commission for England (BCE), giving members of the public a final chance to have their say on proposals for new constituencies in their area.

From 8 November, members of the public will be able to view and comment on new suggested constituency boundaries. This third and final consultation will last four weeks, ending on 5 December, and will be the last opportunity for the public to have a say on the new map of constituencies in England. The Commission will also publish all comments received during the secondary consultation stage, including transcripts from the public hearings held around the country.

Following this upcoming final consultation, the BCE will form its final recommendations which will be submitted to Parliament by July 2023.

Thu 3 Mar 2022, 11:20

Since the Bicester constituency does not yet exist, and includes quite a few areas that are likely to vote LibDem, you can't assume that the Conservatives will win there, James.

Banbury already has strong pockets of Labour and is likely to be joined by Chipping Norton (which also tends to vote Labour), so even there nothing is set in stone -- although, having said that, it seems to have been Conservative since the 1920s.

In any case the boundary reorganisation is not about the next election, but about the next ten years or more.

Thu 3 Mar 2022, 10:36

Meh, they’re all filthy tory strongholds.

Thu 3 Mar 2022, 10:23

For those who have forgotten (or never knew), there is a proposal to move Charlbury out of the Witney Parliamentary Constituency and into the Banbury Parliamentary Constituency.

The second stage of the consultation process is now open, and closes on April 4th. Quite a few people in Charlbury put in objections. You can see them and also respond via accessing this page: https://www.bcereviews.org.uk/

We count as being in the South East if you are looking at the maps. There seem to be 3 alternatives: to move into the Banbury constituency (as proposed); to stay in Witney (as some of the objectors propose), or to move into the proposed Bicester constituency as other Charlbury objectors suggest.

The problem is that Witney has grown hugely, a new Parliamentary constituency for Bicester has been created, and numbers of eligible voters in each constituency need to be kept roughly equal.

If you want to remind yourself of the lengthy discussion about this matter on this forum back in June 2021, the link is here: https://www.charlbury.info/forum/7976#44454