Covid in town.

Fri 23 Oct 2020, 19:40 (last edited on Sat 24 Oct 2020, 10:49)

My point exactly Liz: Tier 2 will severely hurt local businesses like the Rose & Crown, Tier 2 will stop family helping out with childcare for working parents during half term because everywhere else is already closed, the local cinema has already gone, and Tier 2 - unless absolutely necessary only serves to lengthen the mental suffering and financial suffering caused by the pandemic. Controls are needed, though they need to be proportional to the risk, and the risk is not the number of cases it is the number of deaths or substantial medical interventions required, and yes I know there is a delay between cases and hospital admissions though we mustn't jump too soon. 

Fri 23 Oct 2020, 18:15

This news explains why the queue at Waitrose was so long. I took one look and decided to return home. I have never seen the Car Park so full. I was wearing a mask for the short walk to buy some flowers. 

Fri 23 Oct 2020, 17:33 (last edited on Fri 23 Oct 2020, 17:45)

Tier 2 means not being able to mix households indoors unless you are in a support bubble - you can meet outside and all other facilities (shops, cinemas, restaurants, pubs, leisure centres) would remain open, but pubs and restaurants would have to close at 10.  The longer this pandemic goes on, the more crippling it will be for the economy, especially if the spread continues and we end up in Tier 3. Cases may be low here but people do travel to Witney where there has been a recent outbreak. We need to do what we can to protect older and vulnerable members of our community and keep the R number low. 

Fri 23 Oct 2020, 17:00

Following the science is great for some imaginary utopian society - as the scientists often state the balance between science, business, social well being, healthcare provision, etc. etc. is what's required. 

It would seem OTT to place the whole of Oxfordshire under Tier 2 when locally the cases are extremely low.

Common sense is what is required by all, (whether a member of the public or a public servant,) though appreciate that isn't a given for all, but hey let's not cripple the entire county.

Fri 23 Oct 2020, 15:43 (last edited on Fri 23 Oct 2020, 15:49)

Indeed they are, Hannen, against the advice of the Director of Public Health for Oxfordshire. The reason for wanting to go to Tier 2 is that it is beginning to spread between households in parts of the county and the DPH wanted to nip this in the bud.  He was backed by every council leader in the county. But the Tory MPs went directly to Matt Hancock and asked him to rule against the proposal which he agreed to.... so much for following the science, and for partnering with local communities. 

Fri 23 Oct 2020, 12:25

It is a good site, thank you Hans.

This is interesting:

https://www.oxfordshire.gov.uk/council/coronavirus-covid-19/controlling-local-coronavirus-outbreaks/stopping-spread

Our Tory MPs are against a move to Tier 2.

Wed 21 Oct 2020, 16:22

New covid site I think it's a good one

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/search?postcode=OX7+3LR

Tue 20 Oct 2020, 09:53 (last edited on Tue 20 Oct 2020, 09:56)

Wood Green School in Witney has closed because of Covid cases, and shortages of staff.

I had wondered why so many cases of Covid had been reported in East Witney (14), with more emerging after the weekend (and perhaps not yet recorded here). Witney Central is 5, and Witney West is 6.

Charlbury & North Leigh = 4

Chadlington & Wychwoods = 5

Woodstock, Stonesfield & Tackley = 5

Kingham, Enstone & Middle Barton = 5

Chipping Norton = 3

Burford and Brize Norton = 9

Mon 12 Oct 2020, 11:05

The ONS data I referred to below seems to indicate the actual infection rate is probably about 10 times higher than the rate indicated by people testing positive. This is because only people with symptoms will ask for a test, whereas 83% tested by ONS had no symptoms - referred to as asymptotic. Do asymptotic people still spread the virus? Probably...

Sun 11 Oct 2020, 10:10

Oxford Mail now reporting Charlbury and North Leigh 3 new cases in the last 7 days. 

Nearby also Chipping Norton 3; Chadlington & Wychwoods 3; Witney Central 3.

Sun 11 Oct 2020, 09:14 (last edited on Sun 11 Oct 2020, 09:14)

Great website 

Fri 9 Oct 2020, 14:31

There's a really good programme on late Friday afternoons on radio 4 called 'More or less' that has featured much about the statistics quoted  about Covid 19. It is highly enlightening to hear the meaning and reality behind these figures and others quoted in the media.

Thu 8 Oct 2020, 21:07

There are cases in Charlbury now as there were earlier in the year. Given any data source has a lag, best if we help each other by following public health guidance. Keep well all.

Thu 8 Oct 2020, 19:08

Good point Hans.

Thu 8 Oct 2020, 19:07

Thank you Katie and John.  

Very useful.

As there are no cases in Charlbury can the restrictions be eased?  Mind you, I suppose that would only apply to locals, and shops would not know who the locals are!  "Passport to Pimlico" anyone?

Thu 8 Oct 2020, 19:05

The ONS is doing useful studies in terms of trying to figure out the actual infection rate in the community by testing some 30,000 people symptoms or not. As a whole in the UK one in 500 appears to be infected. There are more cases in the North West and North East and they estimate one in 1300 in the South East. We now also now that some 83% of infected people have no symptoms but may spread the virus anyway. So even though our area shows 0-2 cases - based on people with symptoms tested positive - it is likely there are a few cases, especially now with infections rising rapidly. Liz Puttick put it absolutely correctly Verily the Devil is everywhere, even among the silly sheep. Follow Science and wear thy mask. 

Link to ONS data 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland2october2020#regional-analysis-of-the-number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

Wed 7 Oct 2020, 11:51 (last edited on Wed 7 Oct 2020, 11:52)

I've found this a useful resource. This site was showing zero cases in the whole of W Oxfordshire a week ago, but there seem to be a few nearby today

http://ukcovid19.nw.r.appspot.com/

You need to put your full postcode in

Wed 7 Oct 2020, 11:49

Here is a map showing he MSOA 

https://insight.oxfordshire.gov.uk/cms/system/files/documents/Oxfordshire_MSOAs_map.pdf

Wed 7 Oct 2020, 11:42

Thanks, Katie, that is really interesting and useful information!

Wed 7 Oct 2020, 10:54

I've just checked the updated map for last week and it is still showing 0-2 cases for Charlbury. Most areas close by are the same or 3-4 cases. The nearest place with substantially more is Islip, Arncott and Chesterton MSOA, with 10 cases. For comparison Cowley North has 22.

FYI, MSOA is a Middle Layer Super Output Area- a metric used by the ONS to improve the reporting of small area statistics in England and Wales. The minimum population is 5000 people per MSOA and the mean is 7200. It's a way of giving very granular data that takes account of population density. Our MSOA code is E02005997 and it can be used to look at all sorts of data from birth rate to household income.

Tue 6 Oct 2020, 12:57

I don't know what the current situation is but I do know for a fact that at least two couples decamped from London in March (during the supposed lockdown).  To their second homes in Charlbury.  Then went shopping locally even though I offered to fetch necessaries for them and gave them the Community Centre leaflet.  They told me they had the virus, and had tested positive at the JR. 

Fortunately they survived but we have no way of knowing how many others they infected.  That was before the compulsory mask days.

A bit like people running around the country with the Plague - so easy to see how it is spread.  

I thought of painting big red crosses on their doors, but it didn't seem like a nice thing to do.

Mon 5 Oct 2020, 17:05

According to the Oxford mail, the IT glitch reported in the press has led to a further 218 cases being added to figures for Oxfordshire, I don't think there is any detail on where these cases are. 

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/18770689.covid-cases-oxford-oxfordshire-surge-error/

Mon 5 Oct 2020, 12:58

Thanks. Perhaps it was just a rumour. I am just concerned  about the more vulnerable in the parish.

Mon 5 Oct 2020, 11:26

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

According to this, there were 0-2 cases in Charlbury last week, the lowest category. If you zoom into the map, you can see very detailed info about how many cases are reported in each area. This is a week behind though and cases are increasing, so it will be interesting to see how much the numbers change this week.

Mon 5 Oct 2020, 10:58 (last edited on Mon 5 Oct 2020, 10:58)

I do know someone who is isolating with a cold! 

Mon 5 Oct 2020, 09:47

If it is it doesn't surprise me. I took a train to Oxford last week for the first time since February. The train there was nice, very safe, very empty. The train back was a different story. Instead of the D Day landing re-enactment by the commuter crowd piling off the train it was 30 - 40 college students who were had not all been socially distancing either on the platform at Oxford or on the train. Apparently Oxford is on a high alert and on the verge of lockdown and with students coming from all over the county and mixing together in one place it's bound to spread the virus to parts of the county which were once Covid free.

Mon 5 Oct 2020, 09:37

Verily the Devil is everywhere, even among the silly sheep. Follow Science and wear thy mask.

Mon 5 Oct 2020, 08:24

I have been told this morning that there is Covid in Charlbury. Can anyone throw light on this, please?