General Election: Vulnerable seats

Tue 20 Feb, 21:36

Unlike Labour in most of Oxfordshire, the Lib Dems have selected a candidate for Banbury - Liz Adams.

Richard is right; the idea that in any General Election, swing is uniform across the entire country is plainly nonsense.

I don't know if I'm the only person to have had a leaflet from both Victoria Prentis and (lingering like a bad smell) Robert Courts recently, on the same day.  One was made up to look like a Green Party leaflet, in style if not content.

Meanwhile it is clear that Bicester & Woodstock is so far down Labour's list that they have no candidate there, haven't won an election at any level in years, and have announced it as a 'non-battleground seat'.

Tue 20 Feb, 21:28 (last edited on Tue 20 Feb, 21:29)

The Guardian article says “For the purposes of this article we are assuming uniform national swing” which makes it not much more accurate than a round of Pin The Tail On The Donkey, I’m afraid. The MRP projections by YouGov and Stonehaven are more plausible (and the one by Electoral Calculus much less plausible).

For what it’s worth I don’t think anyone sensible disputes that Labour is the most likely challenger in Banbury, and that the LibDems are the most likely challengers in Bicester & Woodstock.

Tue 20 Feb, 19:42

We'e not hearing much from the Lib. Dems. so far...

Tue 20 Feb, 18:36 (last edited on Tue 20 Feb, 18:36)

The Guardian has today published a list of 148 seats that the Conservatives could lose to Labour if the current opinion polls are right.

Neither Bicester and Woodstock nor Witney feature on the list. But the redefined Banbury constituency (which includes Charlbury, Finstock and Fawler) comes in at no 126 -- requiring a swing of 27.2%. 

Article here: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/feb/20/general-election-uk-opinion-polls-seats-tories-lose 

A lot of assumptions, of course, but spelt out in the text.