Constituency Changes Result Forecast

Mon 30 Oct 2023, 17:29

It did look quite certain there would be a change of government until very recently. However the events in the Middle East may have caused a split in the Labour coalition (as seems to be the case in many European countries https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/29/how-the-gaza-conflict-is-dividing-europes-left)>

Labour has now lost its majority in the Oxford council because of resignations. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-67231473

Mon 30 Oct 2023, 14:09

Love your optimism Liz.  Banbury still is a part of the United Kingdom I think.  Maybe you can persuade Labour and the LibDems to stop splitting the centre vote?  Or both parties will be guilty of supporting divide and rule.  

Mon 30 Oct 2023, 13:31

It turns out that the government did not after all miss the deadline, boundary changes have been confirmed with the PC but the website was not updated, now corrected. 

Alice, our Witney days are over, brighter days ahead in Banbury.

Mon 30 Oct 2023, 12:38 (last edited on Mon 30 Oct 2023, 12:38)

Reports today suggest the incompetent Government may have missed the deadline to confirm the boundary changes with the Privy Council.

Meanwhile Electoral Calculus’ predictions continue to appear to bear as much resemblance to reality as Erik ten Hag’s claims that his football team is improving.  In most Oxfordshire constituencies, Labour are invisible with the Lib Dems the clear challengers to the Tories.  Other, more reliable predictions are available.  Robert Courts’ survival is almost certain to come down to whether those who want to see him replaced can unite behind his strongest challengers, which were clearly the Lib Dems even in 2019, a poor year for them.

And in Banbury, Labour’s council chamber antics are hardly likely to endear them to the large number of Lib Dem voters in the new constituency.

Mon 30 Oct 2023, 12:20

Tactical voters will vote tactically when they are sure that their preferred vote counts in other constituencies, like Witney.  All votes on loan are conditional and it doesn't need to be beyond our control ....

Mon 30 Oct 2023, 09:23

Charlbury is now in Banbury constituency where a Labour victory is forecast. This means that tactical voters need to vote Labour to ensure the result.

What happens in Witney is now beyond our control...

Mon 30 Oct 2023, 08:45

I had a look, what's interesting is that even in the "new" Robert Courts Witney seat the prediction is that if Labour, Lib Dems and Green worked together they would secure 57% of the votes - vs 42% if Reform and Conservatives work together. 

The gap between Conservatives (on 36%) and Labour (2nd placed on 29%) is 7%, so it would need about 1/3 of the third-placed Lib Dems (on 23%) to switch to tip the seat over.

I suppose the result will depend on the willingness of parties to work together. 

Sun 29 Oct 2023, 23:27

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?postcode=OX7+3EG

This shows Victoria Prentis will lose her current seat as MP

Robert Courts will retain his.

Worth keeping an  eye on